Are We Double-Counting These RBs In 2026 Fantasy Drafts?

It’s tempting to overcomplicate fantasy football. Hell, you could even argue that overthinking fantasy football is the entire point. It’s why many of us are here in the first place. We are obsessed.

But occasionally you’ll see a stat—like the one Dwain McFarland dropped the other day—and it will remind you how simple fantasy can be.

Dwain discovered that current-year ADP (average draft position, aka the wisdom of the crowds across a large sample size) is less predictive than prior-season fantasy points per game.

That’s a wild revelation when you consider ADP theoretically bakes in all the updated “context” that last year’s box scores don’t possess—coaching changes, free agency shifts, injuries, news, etc.

Example: David Montgomery finished as the RB28 last year in PPG, but the market (aka ADP) currently has him as the RB20. Why? Because the market knows something that last year’s box score doesn’t—he’s no longer 1B behind Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit and instead will be the lead back for Houston in 2026.

But what Dwain’s findings suggest (and he did update it slightly here) is that the market is likely double-counting these changes and that perhaps we’d be better off staying anchored to a more relevant data point—what happened last year.

Obviously, there is nuance here—predicting breakouts is a huge part of fantasy football—but I do think it should serve as a sobering reminder that we are probably too anxious to skate to where the puck is going to be when we can often meet the puck where it is already at.

It’s why I’m skeptical of how expensive the Chargers pieces are this year—it’s entirely predicated on what the market thinks Mike McDaniel can do for the offense as opposed to what the players showed us last year.

Jared Smola from DraftSharks piggybacked on Dwain’s findings and shared a cohort of players who are likely undervalued and overvalued using this simple heuristic:

Higher in 2025 finish vs. 2026 ADP (undervalued): Kenneth Gainwell (+11), Josh Jacobs (+10), J.K. Dobbins (+10), Rico Dowdle (+10), Jaylen Warren (+9), Rhamondre Stevenson (+9)
Higher in 2026 ADP vs. 2025 finish (overvalued): Bhayshul Tuten (-36), Chuba Hubbard (-18), Montgomery (-17), Blake Corum (-17)

Don’t be mad, Tuten heads … I’m just the messenger.

For more on what matters the most for RBs in fantasy football, check out Dwain’s latest opus below.

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To Sleep, or Not To Sleep …

While it’s important to have a list of under-the-radar players capable of smashing their fantasy football ADP, it’s equally as important to be intentional about your sleepers and recognize which ones are better fades than they are clicks.

To help sift through the noise, we’ve scraped the most commonly mentioned sleepers for 2026 across various mediums (social media, analysts, articles) to give thoughts on whether they should be targets or fade.

Fantasy Football Running Back Sleepers For 2026

Cam Skattebo (NYG): RB19 ADP
Bhayshul Tuten (JAX): RB25
RJ Harvey (DEN): RB31
Jonathon Brooks (CAR): RB36
Kenneth Gainwell (TB): RB37
Jonah Coleman (DEN): RB47
Keaton Mitchell (LAC): RB44

Jonathon Brooks is by far and away the most-cited RB sleeper overall, and he happens to be my favorite of this bunch. The only back standing between Brooks and a featured role is Chuba Hubbard, and HC Dave Canales has only added fuel to the fire, noting that he will get every chance to compete. Learned (Twitter) doctors also have confidence that his second ACL tear is not as much a cause for concern as a second tear typically would be, viewing the second procedure as a stabilizer to make up for the lax first procedure. Brooks was a top-50 pick in the draft a mere two years ago. That talent doesn’t just go away, and his home-league price is surely going to be far lower than his current cost in best ball.

Of the more expensive “sleeper” running backs, I’m pretty in on both Cam Skattebo and Bhayshul Tuten. Skattebo is returning from a brutal knee injury, but all indications are that he’ll be ready to go and 100% for Week 1. He averaged 17.8 points per game in a seven-game stretch last season, and with such a depleted group of pass catchers, we should see the Giants rely on the ground game early and often. It also helps that Skattebo is an elite receiver out of the backfield, too.

Tuten is likely going to be cheaper than Skattebo on draft day, just like he currently is in best ball, but he’s tied to an offense with much more upside. He flashed upside as a rookie (7 TDs on roughly 100 touches), and the Jags offense ran the fourth-most plays in the NFL last season, ranking as a top-10 scoring unit. He’ll get the high-value touches (pass game, goal line), but will cede work to Chris Rodriguez between the 20s.

TWO MORE SLEEPER RBs TO TARGET

100+ Target But Outside The Top-100 In ADP … What Gives?

It’s fun to peruse both our fantasy football projections and compare them to ADP to see how they measure up. And to see if there might be some players where we can possibly pounce on the opportunity for a player who might be more valuable down the road.

What will make those players more valuable? Volume. That’s why, before we get any deeper into fantasy draft season, we’re exploring the pass catchers who are projected to see at least 100 targets this season and have an ADP that is 100 or higher.

🔥 Harold Fannin | TE | Browns

Considering how much excitement that Harold Fannin created last year with his rookie year line of 72-731-6 on 107 targets, it’s a little surprising that he’s going after pick 100. Especially with the dearth we see at the TE position annually. This has to be largely because of the quarterback competition that the Browns are staging this season, which is leaving fantasy managers less than enthused about drafting Fannin. Or any Browns, even Quinshon Judkins.

Please remember that Fannin had a great season in 2025 with an unsettled QB situation. In Weeks 6-16, when he was clearly the lead TE in Cleveland, Fannin turned 77 targets into 49 catches for 528 yards and 4 TDs. He does have more target competition from a pair of rookies (see below), but keep in mind that new HC Todd Monken has schemed up plenty of targets for TEs. Mark Andrews saw a 20% targets per route run and 23% end-zone targets as recently as 2024. Fannin could see close to those numbers.

WRs PROJECTED FOR ELITE VOLUME AT A CHEAP COST

Early Or Late? Don’t Pass Up Your Choice At QB

Do you like the security of an elite QB like Josh Allen? Or do you prefer to wait at QB and load up at the other positions to build the strongest roster? Whatever you choose, we want you to be all in. Make sure to subscribe to the Fantasy Life Show YouTube channel to catch this and every episode.⤵️

IS ALLEN FINISHING QB1 WORTH PASSING UP OTHER POSITIONS?

Published Jul 11, 2026, 7:00 AM ETUpdated Jul 11, 2026, 9:10 AM ET